An Undeniable Structural Shift is Underway in the DMV real estate market

One of the many things we are excited about with Corcoran is the incredible thought leadership by David Howell, our Chief Information Officer and lead broker. Please review this very well put summary of the state of the market. Our market ranges mainly between a balanced and seller's market, except the condo market in Washington DC. 

Key Takeaways

• Prior to the COVID pandemic, the market for condos was a bit stronger than the market for attached and detached homes.  That is no longer the case.
• Condos/co-ops are now the weakest segment in every area we track, where condos represent a decent slice of the market.  (Examples: among other areas, there are very few condos in Shenandoah, Fauquier, and the West Virginia Panhandle.)
• NAR recently released the somewhat startling news that, nationally,  the median age of the first-time homebuyer is now 40.  A decade ago, it was 31.  While a condo purchase was the traditional on-ramp to homeownership, a 40-year-old is likely looking for something different as their first purchase.
• This demographic trend doesn’t reverse overnight, so expect some longer-term headwinds for condos.
• This is true even in the strongest parts of the region’s market.  The greater Northern Virginia markets are healthier than DC and suburban Maryland, but condos are the weakest part of their market, too.
• Condos in DC are now solidly in the “buyers’ market” range, with absorption rates of just 10.9% in November, and there is over an 8-month supply.

Why It Matters

• This overall shift in the market has been in the works for quite a while and shouldn’t be a reason for concern.  It’s now closer to “normal” than anything we have seen in the last decade, so it feels worse than it is.
• Once again, over 40% of all homes available on the market in the region have had at least one price reduction.   Buyers continue to reward sellers who price correctly, and sellers who are too aggressive with their initial pricing are not doing well.
• Yet despite the general downward movement, there are still hot spots.  In November, the absorption rates for detached homes in Burke was 72% and 54% in Ashburn.  And at the other end of the spectrum, it’s 18% for townhomes in Hyattsville and 7% for condos in Petworth.
• Candid conversations with sellers and buyers really matter.

And as usual, we have attached two PDFs that have four columns of absorption rate information, and the highlighted column contains the absorption rates for November 2025 for each of our major jurisdictions for detached and attached homes and for condos/coops.  The columns to the left contain the same info for November 2019 (pre-COVID) and November of last year to provide some context on how we’re doing now.  The column on the far right shows the absorption rates for one month ago, November 2025.